| Title: | Short-term origin-destination demand prediction in urban rail transit systems : a channel-wise attentive split-convolutional neural network method | Authors: | Zhang, J Che, H Chen, F Ma, W He, Z |
Issue Date: | Mar-2021 | Source: | Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies, Mar. 2021, v. 124, 102928 | Abstract: | Short-term origin–destination (OD) flow prediction in urban rail transit (URT) plays a crucial role in smart and real-time URT operation and management. Different from other short-term traffic forecasting methods, the short-term OD flow prediction possesses three unique characteristics: (1) data availability: real-time OD flow is not available during the prediction; (2) data dimensionality: the dimension of the OD flow is much higher than the cardinality of transportation networks; (3) data sparsity: URT OD flow is spatiotemporally sparse. There is a great need to develop novel OD flow forecasting method that explicitly considers the unique characteristics of the URT system. To this end, a channel-wise attentive split–convolutional neural network (CAS-CNN) is proposed. The proposed model consists of many novel components such as the channel-wise attention mechanism and split CNN. In particular, an inflow/outflow-gated mechanism is innovatively introduced to address the data availability issue. We further originally propose a masked loss function to solve the data dimensionality and data sparsity issues. The model interpretability is also discussed in detail. The CAS–CNN model is tested on two large-scale real-world datasets from Beijing Subway, and it outperforms the rest of benchmarking methods. The proposed model contributes to the development of short-term OD flow prediction, and it also lays the foundations of real-time URT operation and management. | Keywords: | Channel-wise attention Deep learning Short-term origin-destination prediction Split CNN Urban rail transit |
Publisher: | Pergamon Press | Journal: | Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies | ISSN: | 0968-090X | DOI: | 10.1016/j.trc.2020.102928 |
| Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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